Thursday, November 19, 2015

Ninja Salvaging Series 3 - Ninja statistics

Welcome to the last post of Ninja Salvaging Series, Season 3. Once again, it's been a fun journey. It depends on a person, but I see ninja salvaging as a temporary activity. It's a great way to break off your routine, but not something I would like to engage "full-time".

As this is a closing post, I have prepared something special. Shortly after I started season 3, I have began collecting data, something that has never been done before. I have kept records of every engagement in order to make some sort of statistics. A lot of mission runners have been visited.

The goal was to visit 100 unique ships and pilots and I'm happy to say, the goal was reached. I understand that this number is still too small to make any serious analysis, but hopefully it will give us somewhat an idea. There were temptations to close it before as activity in my system was not at such good level. Dodixie hub was out of the question and next door systems would also be tricky as I did not have my tools (ships) there, so everything was done in Agrallarier. Let's look at ninja salvaging backed by hard data.

The ship of choice to do missions is, of course, a battleship, which consisted a total of 61% of all ships encountered. Due to the data sample, I have combined faction and non faction hulls. Cruiser and Battlecruiser hulls were almost equally popular.

The majority of mission runners are between 1 and 2 years old, which accounts for 48% of total pilots visited. Please note that the count starts with first year, meaning if pilot is less than 12 months old, he will appear under 1 year bracket. Pilot with 12-24 months will appear in 2 year bracket and so on.

I believe this data backs up my general feeling, that new players either mine or run missions in high-sec, until they "grow out of it" and move out to another areas (see sudden drop after age of 2 years). Then there are hardcore old mission runners (3 years +) that stay in high-sec for various reasons. Can be just taking a break, alts, or generally not interested in life outside high-sec.

I have mapped reaction from mission runners. I've divided it in two groups: early and late reaction. Early means the reaction I get upon entering mission and staying for some minutes, usually not more than 3. Late is reaction I get when I stick around, usually up to 10 minutes.

From the above graph, we see that roughly half of mission runners will ignore you - 52%. When you stick long enough, only 44% of total mission runners ignores you for the entire time. Second most often reaction is a warp out. They leave their mission in hopes you will move on, get killed by npc and won't come again (hint: you should).

The purpose of ninja salvaging is to get aggro. Trend is that only 10-15% percent will shoot you. One fifth out of those who shoot you, may have pvp fits. Out of 16 Aggro, I had 3 encounters of people with pvp fits.

Of course it highly depends on what kind of ship they are flying and how old they are. If you visit only new players and cheap ships, chances to get shot at are much greater. In above graph I compare chance to get aggro per ship type. Of course data sample is rather small, but highest chance to get shot at is from cruisers (36%), battlecruisers (18%), battleships (13%). While sample is small, I can tell from experience, that it more or less reflects the reality.

Due to spread out age, it's hard to make any reliable analysis of age and aggro, however there is one trend that my experience backs up: high probability to get attacked if player is less than 1 year old. In contrast, the more old the pilot is, the higher the chance he will not care about you salvaging and looting his wrecks.

And there you have it. Mini analysis of ninja salvaging. Here is the table of all the data collected.

ShipShip type detailAge (years)Early reactionLate reactionGroup (2+)
Vexor NavyFaction Cruiser1AggroAggrono
Vexor NavyFaction Cruiser1AggroAggrono
Vexor NavyFaction Cruiser2AggroAggrono
Raven NavyFaction battleship3AggroAggrono
Raven NavyFaction battleship4Aggro PVP fitAggro PVP fityes
ArmageddonBattleship5Aggro PVP fitAggro PVP fitno
MyrmidonBattlecruiser11Aggro PVP fitAggro PVP fitno
KronosBattleship4blues wrecksignoresno
Drake NavyFaction battlecruiser4blues wrecksblues wrecksno
NighthawkBattlecruiser6blues wrecksblues wrecksyes
IshtarHAC1goes afkshoots wrecksno
GolemMarauder7goes afkwarps outno
GolemMarauder9goes afkgoes afkno
DominixBattleship1ignoresgoes afkno
BrutixBattlecruiser1ignoreswarps outno
DrakeBattlecruiser1ignoreswarps outno
Brutix NavyFaction battlecruiser1ignoresignoresno
MacharielFaction battleship1ignoresignoresno
VexorCruiser1ignoresgoes afkno
NestorFaction battleship2ignoresignoresno
Dominix NavyFaction battleship2ignoresignoresno
MacharielFaction battleship2ignoreswarps outno
ArmageddonBattleship2ignoreswarps outno
RattlesnakeFaction battleship2ignoresignoresno
Megathron NavyFaction battleship2ignoreswarps outno
Raven NavyFaction battleship4ignoresgoes afkno
GilaFaction Cruiser4ignoresignoresyes
Dominix NavyFaction battleship6ignoresignoresno
Dominix NavyFaction battleship8ignoresignoresno
NightmareFaction battleship8ignoresignoresno
DominixBattleship8ignoreswarps outno
Megathron NavyFaction battleship11ignoresignoresyes
GolemMarauder12ignoresgoes afkno
DominixBattleship3shoots wrecksgoes afkno
HyperionBattleship1warps outwarps outno
BrutixBattlecruiser1warps outwarps outno
MyrmidonBattlecruiser1warps outwarps outno
MyrmidonBattlecruiser1warps outwarps outno
HyperionBattleship1warps outwarps outno
MyrmidonBattlecruiser1warps outwarps outno
RavenBattleship1warps outwarps outno
Vexor NavyFaction Cruiser1warps outwarps outno
Brutix NavyFaction battlecruiser1warps outwarps outno
RattlesnakeFaction battleship2warps outwarps outno
MacharielFaction battleship3warps outwarps outno
HyperionBattleship4warps outwarps outno
MacharielFaction battleship4warps outwarps outno
MegathronBattleship5warps outwarps outno
HyperionBattleship5warps outwarps outno
StratiosFaction Cruiser7warps outwarps outno
DominixBattleship8warps outwarps outno
KronosBattleship12warps outignoresno
DominixBattleship12warps outwarps outno
DominixBattleship1yellow boxignoresno
Megathron NavyFaction battleship1yellow boxwarps outno
GolemMarauder2yellow boxwarps outno
DominixBattleship5yellow boxwarps outno
RattlesnakeFaction battleship8yellow boxwarps outyes
DominixBattleship10yellow boxAggrono
DominixBattleship11yellow boxyellow boxno
DominixBattleship12yellow boxwarps outno


  1. No wormhole partner yet? I am suprised. I would of thought that players would be tripping over themselves wanting to be your wingman. Guess you're just taking your time with so many resumes to read through.

    1. Wormhole partner is already taken care of. The posts simply need to catch up with real time events.